India and US Trade: A New Dawn?

On July 18, Indian markets are set for a positive start, tracking GIFT Nifty trading at 25,205.50. After a recent dip, where the Sensex fell by 375.24 points and Nifty by 100.60 points due to selling in IT and banking sectors, the broader indices showed resilience. Asian stocks are rising, driven by strong economic data from the US, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs. Foreign institutional investors have been net sellers, while domestic investors continue to buy. Today's market holds promise for traders, with positive global cues suggesting a potentially profitable day ahead.

PVR INOX Ltd shares fell after Karnataka proposed a Rs 200 cap on movie ticket prices, affecting all theatres in the state. This rule could significantly lower ticket revenue, impacting PVR-INOX's overall earnings. Karnataka is a crucial market for the company, accounting for 12.3% of its screens and contributing significantly to Hindi box office collections. If implemented, the cap could hinder franchise expansion and make profitability challenging, especially in premium formats. Analysts are watching the situation closely, maintaining a cautious outlook on the company's stock.

Monika Alcobev, a Mumbai-based liquor importer, has seen a strong response to its IPO, being 1.51 times subscribed on the second day of bidding. The company aims to raise Rs 165.63 crore by offering 47.91 lakh fresh shares and selling 10 lakh shares from existing shareholders. The price range for shares is set between Rs 271-286. Non-institutional investors are particularly enthusiastic, with their bids oversubscribed 2.95 times. Funds raised will support working capital and debt repayment, while the firm holds exclusive rights to distribute over 70 global liquor brands in India.

SEBI's Ananth Narayan raised alarms about the overwhelming volume in short-term F&O contracts, noting that on expiry days, index options often see 350 times more turnover than the underlying cash market. This imbalance can harm market stability and investor confidence. He emphasized the need to enhance the quality of derivatives by extending their tenure, while also calling for a deeper cash equities market. With 91% of individual traders facing losses in F&O trading, SEBI's reforms aim to address these issues, focusing on sustainable trends and engaging all stakeholders in dialogue.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is set to simplify mutual fund classifications, helping investors better understand their options. Scheduled for release this week, the draft aims to make schemes more intuitive, minimizing the risk of mis-selling and ensuring that funds remain "true to label." As India's mutual fund market continues to grow, with assets surpassing Rs 74 lakh crore, this initiative will empower more individuals to participate in investing. By reviewing and enhancing scheme norms, SEBI aims to create a more accessible investment landscape for all.

In June, domestic investors showed decreased interest in thematic and sectoral funds, with net inflows dropping to Rs 470 crore, per Elara Capital's report. Manufacturing-themed funds experienced outflows for the seventh month, while Energy funds saw a significant Rs 740 crore outflow, the highest in four years. Despite fluctuations, thematic funds had a total net inflow of Rs 64,488 crore over the past year. The top 10 funds accounted for nearly half of June's inflows, with the Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund leading the way. Overall, mutual fund inflows bounced back to Rs 23,500 crore from Rs 19,000 crore in May, signaling a recovery.

June saw a robust participation of mutual funds in IPO anchor placements, with investments surpassing Rs 2,688 crore in five out of eight IPOs. Notable contributions came from funds like Motilal Oswal, Axis, and SBI, indicating strong confidence in the market. Major IPOs like HDB Financial Services and Kalpataru Projects attracted significant investments, showcasing mutual funds' strategic role in India's evolving investment landscape. However, three IPOs saw no mutual fund participation, highlighting selective investment strategies.

Gold prices saw a slight increase due to new tariffs imposed by President Trump, but a strong dollar limited gains. Spot gold rose to $3,332.73 per ounce, while the Indian rupee fell to ₹85.89 against the US dollar. Trump’s tariffs, especially a significant 35% on Canadian imports, raised concerns globally, impacting investor sentiment. Despite these tensions, India is progressing towards a trade agreement with the US, aiming for an interim deal by September or October. Ongoing negotiations focus on key sectors like agriculture and automobiles, reflecting India's proactive approach amidst global trade challenges.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently shared his optimistic view on AI's impact on work and creativity. He believes that while jobs will evolve, the human desire to create and connect will persist. AI is expected to enhance our capabilities, allowing us to achieve more and find deeper meaning in our work. Altman emphasizes that the future of work won't be a competition between humans and AI but rather a partnership that opens up new possibilities. He reminds us that human ambition is limitless, ensuring that our quest for creativity and purpose remains strong.

Industrialist Anand Mahindra recently shared valuable insights from his 44 years of experience, resonating deeply with social media users. In a post on X, he reminded people facing challenges that tough times are temporary and will eventually pass. Mahindra emphasized the importance of resilience and focus during stressful moments, encouraging individuals to trust in the process of change. His comforting words garnered significant attention online, with many expressing gratitude for his perspective, highlighting the need for hope and reminders that storms eventually clear.

Silver has always been valued, but its role has evolved, as it now serves both as a precious metal and an industrial asset. While silver-focused investments like mutual funds are gaining traction, historical data shows that silver underperforms compared to gold and equities in terms of long-term returns. It also introduces volatility and does not act as a reliable crisis hedge. Therefore, for investors seeking stability and consistent returns, silver may not be a wise core portfolio asset, although it may have tactical appeal in certain market conditions.

Zydus Lifesciences saw a slight increase in its share price after receiving USFDA approval for its Celecoxib Capsules, a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug. Trading at Rs 973.55, the approval covers multiple strengths of the medication, which is designed to alleviate pain and inflammation from conditions like arthritis and menstrual pain. The capsules will be manufactured at Zydus's facility in Ahmedabad. With this approval, Zydus continues to expand its portfolio, now holding 428 approvals since 2003.

OpenAI is facing another significant outage affecting users globally, including in India. This incident, which began on July 16, 2025, has left many unable to access services like ChatGPT, Sora, and the GPT API. With 88% of complaints about ChatGPT being completely down, users are experiencing issues like login failures and lost work. OpenAI has acknowledged the problem but hasn't confirmed the cause or recovery time. In the meantime, users are advised to save their work externally and avoid repeated login attempts.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is pulling ahead of its competitors, with its market value exceeding that of its three largest rivals combined and profits soaring to $30 billion. The bank has benefitted from acquiring First Republic Bank and stands as the largest U.S. bank by assets. However, CEO Jamie Dimon warns that competition is intensifying, as rivals like Wells Fargo and Citigroup are recovering, and fintech companies are emerging as serious challengers. Dimon emphasizes the need for caution, highlighting the rapidly changing landscape of the banking industry.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is proposing a significant change in how gold and silver are valued within the mutual fund industry. Moving away from the international LBMA prices, SEBI suggests using spot prices from domestic commodity exchanges. This move aims to create uniformity in valuations, reduce discrepancies, and reflect true market conditions in India. By adopting this method, asset management companies can streamline their processes and align their valuations with local demand and supply, enhancing transparency in the sector.

Bitcoin has hit a remarkable record high of $123,153, breaking through the $120,000 barrier for the first time. This surge comes as the US House of Representatives prepares to discuss crucial crypto legislation during "Crypto Week." The digital currency has risen over 60% since last November, reflecting growing optimism in the crypto market. Notably, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a long-term reserve asset by both retail and institutional investors, including central banks. This shift indicates a significant change in how Bitcoin is perceived globally, moving beyond mere speculation.

The US embassy in India has issued a warning for Indians applying for a US visa, stressing the importance of abiding by US laws. Committing crimes like assault or theft can lead to visa revocation and future ineligibility. This warning follows a viral incident of an Indian woman caught shoplifting in the US. She attempted to steal items worth ₹1.1 lakh but was apprehended by police. The embassy's warning is part of stricter measures for visa applicants, including social media vetting, reflecting a serious stance on law and order for foreign visitors.

Economists are optimistic about U.S. economic growth, expecting better job creation and lower recession risks than previously thought. This shift follows a temporary pause in tariffs that had raised concerns. However, uncertainties remain, with a projected GDP growth of 1% for the fourth quarter, and the chance of recession at 33%. While consumer spending is stabilizing, inflation is expected to be lower than earlier forecasts. The overall sentiment is cautious, indicating resilience in the economy despite ongoing headwinds, particularly from trade policies.