Indian Equities: Navigating Risks in 2025

HDFC Bank, India's largest private lender, reported a 12% rise in net profit for Q1 2025, reaching ₹18,155 crore. This positive performance led brokerages to raise their target prices, anticipating stronger growth in the coming months. Interest income increased by 6% to ₹77,470 crore, while the bank's net interest margin slightly declined. HDFC Bank's robust provisioning strategy has fortified its balance sheet, and brokers are optimistic about its growth trajectory. With shares trading higher, the bank is seen as a favorable investment option.

Indian stock markets are set for a robust opening on July 22, buoyed by positive signals from GIFT Nifty, which was trading around 25,184. After a two-day decline, the Nifty rebounded, closing above 25,000, driven by gains in auto, real estate, metal, and private banks. The Sensex rose by 442.61 points, while the Nifty increased by 122.30 points. Global markets showed mixed results, with Asian equities demonstrating modest gains and U.S. markets reaching record highs. Investors are keenly watching trade developments as they affect market dynamics.

Choice International, a financial services firm, reported a remarkable 50% increase in its profit after tax, reaching Rs 47.96 crore for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. This growth stemmed from robust performance across various business sectors, with stock broking being the major contributor. Revenue rose by 16% year-on-year, and the company significantly expanded its demat accounts and advisory business. Despite a sequential decline from the previous quarter, the firm’s commitment to operational excellence and customer service is evident as it opened more branches nationwide, enhancing accessibility for clients.

Inflation data suggests that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates soon, possibly even twice. This could lead to a prolonged pause in rate changes. While the equity market is currently fairly valued, it holds the potential for double-digit returns as earnings grow. In the banking sector, initial earnings growth may be modest due to rate cuts affecting profit margins, but a recovery is expected by late FY26. The IT sector faces challenges, particularly in large-cap companies, yet stock-specific opportunities may arise. Overall, investors should remain cautious yet optimistic.

PNB Housing Finance has reported a remarkable 23% rise in net profit, reaching Rs 534 crore for Q1 ending June 2025. This growth comes from a net profit of Rs 433 crore during the same quarter last year. The company's total income increased to Rs 2,082 crore, driven by higher interest income of Rs 1,980 crore. The net interest income also saw a significant 17% boost, and the net interest margin rose to 3.75%. Additionally, the gross Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) fell to 1.06%, showcasing improved financial health. Overall, PNB Housing is on a solid growth trajectory.

State Bank of India (SBI) has raised Rs 25,000 crore through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) to boost its business growth. The board approved the issuance of over 30.5 million equity shares at Rs 817 each. Additionally, the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) increased its stake in SBI from 9.21% to 9.49%. This fundraising effort, part of SBI's strategy to enhance its capital base, follows a successful Rs 15,000 crore QIP in 2017-18. SBI also plans to raise more funds through tier 1 and tier 2 bonds, reflecting its robust financial growth and commitment to shareholder returns.

Gold prices have seen a slight increase today, with 24-carat gold priced at ₹97,505 per 10 grams on the MCX. This marks a small rise from yesterday's levels, reflecting ongoing market fluctuations. The price reached a record high of ₹1,00,314 in June 2025 amidst geopolitical tensions. As trade talks between the US and other nations continue, the gold market remains sensitive to global events. Chennai currently has the highest gold prices, while New Delhi has the lowest. Silver prices have also dipped slightly, indicating mixed trends in precious metals.

YouTube is set to eliminate its “Trending” page, a feature that has been around since 2015. This change comes as users are finding trends through recommendations, searches, and other features. Instead of a general trending list, YouTube will now offer YouTube Charts, allowing users to explore popular content in specific categories, such as music and gaming. Creators will also benefit from personalized suggestions to engage their audiences better. This shift aims to enhance user experience and help creators thrive on the platform.

Jio Financial Services and Allianz Group have teamed up to create a 50:50 reinsurance joint venture aimed at revolutionizing the insurance market in India. This partnership combines JFSL's local expertise with Allianz's global capabilities, enhancing the insurance ecosystem's resilience. With a focus on innovative solutions, the venture aims to address the growing demand for insurance driven by rising prosperity and digital adoption. This collaboration not only seeks to provide tailored reinsurance solutions but also aligns with the national goal of "Insurance for All by 2047," ensuring wider access to protection for every Indian.

The U.S. Department of Education has temporarily halted student loan forgiveness under the Income-Based Repayment (IBR) plan, the only plan not facing legal issues. This pause is due to system updates needed to accurately calculate borrower payments. IBR requires monthly payments based on 15% of discretionary income, with forgiveness available after 20-25 years of repayment. Borrowers are left in limbo, waiting for updates that will determine their eligibility for forgiveness. Understanding these changes is crucial for those seeking relief from student loans.

Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, made headlines by selling 300,000 shares worth nearly $50 million, as the company thrives in the booming AI sector. This week alone, he sold 75,000 shares for about $12.94 million and 225,000 shares for around $37 million. Nvidia’s GPUs are in high demand, solidifying its position as the most valuable publicly traded company globally, with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion. Additionally, Nvidia plans to resume chip sales to China, following U.S. government assurances for export licenses, showcasing Huang's commitment to expanding in the Chinese market.

Mahindra & Mahindra and TVS Motor Company are expected to outperform the broader market, according to expert Milan Vaishnav. Both stocks are in a consolidation phase, suggesting a potential breakout soon. While HDFC AMC may experience minor corrections, its overall uptrend remains strong. The Nifty 50 has struggled recently, and it's crucial for it to maintain levels above 25,000 to avoid further declines. The Bank Nifty may test its support level of 56,000, indicating a cautious outlook ahead. Investors should keep an eye on these stocks as they show promising signs.

Shares of battery-material producers in Asia-Pacific surged after the U.S. announced a staggering 93.5% anti-dumping duty on graphite imports from China. This move aims to protect U.S. industries, as Chinese companies were accused of unfairly subsidizing their products. The increased tariffs, totaling 160%, may benefit non-Chinese suppliers, encouraging U.S. buyers to seek alternative sources. Companies in South Korea and Australia saw significant stock gains, highlighting the growing importance of a resilient supply chain for critical battery materials.

A tragic incident occurred at AIIMS Patna when Yadavendra Shahu, a first-year MBBS student from Odisha, was found dead in his hostel room. Concern arose when his phone was found ringing inside, prompting local police to investigate. Upon entering the room, they discovered his body on the bed. Authorities are conducting an investigation into the cause of death, considering various possibilities such as foul play or health issues. The student's family has been notified, and a post-mortem will be carried out. This shocking event follows another violent incident involving a retired health official in Bihar.

Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries has kicked off fiscal year 2026 with impressive financial results for April-June. The company achieved its highest-ever quarterly net profit of ₹30,783 crore, marking a 76.5% increase from last year. Key growth drivers include telecom, retail, and oil-to-chemical sectors, with Jio Platforms seeing a surge in subscribers. Reliance Retail expanded its customer base significantly, while the EBITDA margin improved to 21.2%. With a strong performance in a volatile global market, Ambani remains optimistic about doubling growth every few years.

The FII long-short ratio has dropped to a mere 15%, signaling a bearish market trend. Historically, when this ratio falls, the market tends to experience limited downside, suggesting that the current negativity might already be priced in. Stocks like NMDC, KIMS Hospital, and GMDC are expected to rise despite the bearish sentiment. The Nifty 50 has struggled for three weeks, hovering below critical support levels. As heavyweights announce Q1 results, market reactions could influence future trends. Investors should watch key support and resistance levels closely.

Reliance Retail has acquired the iconic home appliances brand Kelvinator, aiming to bolster its presence in India’s booming consumer durables market. Known for its innovative refrigeration solutions since the 1970s, Kelvinator will enhance Reliance’s product offerings, making quality appliances more accessible to Indian families. Isha Ambani highlighted that this acquisition aligns with their goal of introducing trusted global innovations to local consumers. With a strong retail network, Reliance aims to expand Kelvinator's reach and tap into the premium segment, providing more options for customers.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is revamping mutual fund categorization to improve clarity for investors and reduce portfolio overlaps. The draft circular proposes that Asset Management Companies (AMCs) can launch a second scheme in the same category, provided the original scheme has been around for over five years and has assets exceeding ₹50,000 crore. This change aims to foster innovation while ensuring investor protection. With 20 proposals affecting various fund types, these changes reflect the growing mutual fund industry and the need for clearer regulations.