RBI Injects Liquidity as Banking System Faces Deficit

OpenAI's Chief Product Officer, Kevin Weil, predicts that by the end of this year, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will surpass humans in competitive coding. He emphasizes the rapid advancement of AI models, exemplified by the upcoming GPT-03, which ranks as the 175th best coder globally. Weil believes that this shift will allow anyone to create software without needing engineering skills. Instead of replacing jobs, AI will enhance them, acting as a support tool in daily work. Experts like Andrej Karpathy stress that coding is evolving, with AI making traditional coding less essential as users can communicate their needs in simple language.

OKX, a digital asset exchange, has temporarily halted a service used by hackers to launder money from a massive $1.5 billion theft linked to the trading platform Bybit. This decision comes after European regulators raised concerns over the misuse of OKX's Web3 service, which was reportedly used to launder around $100 million from the heist attributed to North Korean hackers. The hack, occurring in February, is noted as one of the largest and most intricate in the crypto world. OKX aims to upgrade its services to prevent future abuses while complying with the European Union's new regulations on cryptocurrencies.

In the last decade, Indian banks have written off a staggering ₹16.35 lakh crore in non-performing assets (NPAs) or bad loans. The highest write-off occurred in the 2018-19 financial year, reaching ₹2,36,265 crore, while the lowest was ₹58,786 crore in 2014-15. Recently, during 2023-24, banks wrote off ₹1,70,270 crore, which is less than the previous year. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman clarified that these write-offs do not relieve borrowers of their debts; banks still pursue recovery through various legal mechanisms. As of December 31, 2024, banks identified 29 large companies with NPAs exceeding ₹1,000 crore, totaling ₹61,027 crore.

The Indian government plans to sell six loss-making airports by the end of the financial year 2025-26, alongside profitable ones to attract investors. This is part of the third privatization round, offering a total of 11 airports. These airports handled about 13.5 million domestic and 2.4 million international passengers recently, contributing significantly to India's air traffic. Notably, Varanasi's airport, which is profitable, will be bundled with struggling airports like Kushinagar and Gaya. Prime Minister Modi aims to raise ₹47,000 lakh crore from asset sales to reduce the budget deficit. Billionaire Gautam Adani is expected to be a major bidder.

Maruti Suzuki India has announced a price hike of up to 4% for its vehicles starting in April. This decision comes as the company faces rising input costs and operational expenses. While Maruti Suzuki is working hard to manage costs and lessen the burden on customers, some of these increased costs will inevitably be passed on to buyers. The price increase will vary based on the car model, affecting everything from the popular Alto K-10 to the versatile Invicto. Earlier in January, the company had also raised prices by as much as Rs 32,500 for various models.

The Indian government is encouraging more companies to join the PM Internship Scheme (PMIS) to provide opportunities for youth. Launched last year, the scheme aims to offer internships to one crore young people across the top 500 companies over five years. Currently, 327 companies are participating, showing an increase from the first round. Each intern will receive Rs 4,500 monthly from the government, while companies will contribute an additional Rs 500. A mobile app has been introduced to enhance user experience and facilitate referrals for eligible candidates. With over 1.18 lakh opportunities available in the second round, the government seeks to boost youth employment and skills development.

In the competitive world of trading, success isn't just about smart decisions; it's about effective risk management. Nithin Kamath, co-founder of Zerodha, emphasizes that traders who survive the market share a common approach: they prioritize managing their risks. Drawing insights from legendary trader Jerry Parker, Kamath suggests cutting losing positions quickly to prevent deeper losses and advises traders to shift their mindset—be afraid when facing losses and hopeful when profits arise. Recently, he noted a significant drop in trading volumes, raising concerns over potential declines in government revenue from securities transaction taxes.

Oil prices increased by about 1% on Monday as the U.S. vowed to continue airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi rebels until they stop attacking shipping routes. Brent crude rose to $71.30 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed to $67.90. This military action is the largest since Trump took office and could last for weeks, causing disruptions in global trade. Despite the recent rise in oil prices, analysts from Goldman Sachs have lowered their future forecasts, predicting slower U.S. economic growth due to tariffs affecting trade relations with countries like China and Mexico.

The Indian parliamentary standing committee on Railways has urged the government to adopt dynamic pricing for AC classes and premium trains. It emphasizes the need to keep fares affordable for low-income passengers while reviewing ticket prices regularly. In recent years, the revenue from AC class tickets has significantly increased, now contributing 54% of total passenger revenues, reversing previous trends. The committee suggests that Indian Railways should enhance revenue through various strategies, including targeted subsidies for non-AC travel and improving operational efficiency. This balanced approach aims to boost financial stability while addressing social obligations.

India's power grid is facing a critical situation this summer, particularly in May and June, with potential electricity shortages of 15-20 gigawatts. The National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) warns that high demand during non-solar hours could lead to significant power deficits. To address this, the NLDC suggests shifting electricity use to off-peak times and utilizing emergency powers to maximize coal-based plant capacities. While solar energy helps during the day, it's insufficient at night. The report emphasizes urgent measures to stabilize the grid and manage rising demand, urging the implementation of battery storage systems to ensure a reliable power supply.

Last week, commodities showed surprising strength despite global market fears. Gold reached an all-time high of over $3,000 per ounce, driven by safe-haven buying amid worries about trade tariffs and potential economic downturns under President Trump. The weaker US dollar helped boost commodity prices, as it fell to a five-month low. In India, MCX Gold futures hit a peak of Rs 88,310 per 10 grams, with predictions of further gains despite potential resistance at Rs 90,000. Crude oil also bounced back, closing above $67 per barrel, as geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Iran and Russia influenced prices.

The Indian stock market has recently faced a decline, and while a further 5% drop is possible, a significant 10% correction seems unlikely. Rohit Beri, CEO of ArthAlpha, predicts a sideways market in the coming quarter, meaning there are still strong stock-specific opportunities. He believes the Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to cut rates in April 2025 due to economic data. Financial sectors can play a key role in market recovery if they show strong performance. Sectors like manufacturing, electric vehicles, and technology may emerge as promising investment opportunities despite current challenges.

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has banned trading in five stocks in the futures and options (F&O) segment due to exceeding 95% of the market-wide position limit. The stocks affected include BSE Ltd, Hindustan Copper, IndusInd Bank, Manappuram Finance, and SAIL. While trading is restricted in F&O, these stocks remain available in the cash market. Investors can only reduce their positions in these stocks during the ban period. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex has faced a decline, marking its fifth consecutive session of losses, affected by selling in various sectors.

The delivery of Russian oil to China has faced significant delays due to US sanctions imposed on Moscow. A cargo of two million barrels took over seven weeks to arrive at Huangdao port, a journey that typically would have taken just a week. The tanker Daban, which transported the oil, underwent multiple ship-to-ship transfers in Russia before it could reach its destination. Despite the disruption, Russian oil exports continue, albeit with delays. The new sanctions are more aggressive than previous ones, targeting various shipping companies and Russian oil producers, which complicates the delivery process.

The Indian government has issued a serious warning for Google Chrome users, urging them to quickly update their browsers. The Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) has identified several vulnerabilities that could let hackers execute harmful code, steal sensitive information, or disrupt services. This is particularly concerning for users of Google Chrome versions earlier than 134.0.6998.88/.89 for Windows and Mac, and 134.0.6998.88 for Linux. To ensure safety, users should check their browser version and install available updates promptly. Ignoring these updates could lead to significant risks, including data loss and privacy breaches.

The recent surge in gold prices has made gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) very popular among investors. In just one year, the assets managed by these ETFs have nearly doubled, reaching ₹55,677 crore. Gold ETFs offer a way to invest in gold without owning physical gold, making them more convenient and secure. With rising global tensions and a downturn in stock markets, many investors are turning to gold ETFs for safety. However, while January saw significant inflows, February's numbers dropped due to profit-taking. Overall, gold ETFs are now viewed as a smart investment option in uncertain economic times.

The parliamentary committee on Railways has urged the government to boost revenues from AC class fares by adopting a dynamic pricing model and ensuring affordability for low-income passengers. This strategy aims to balance social responsibilities while improving financial performance. Recent trends show a significant shift, with revenues from AC classes projected to reach 54% of total passenger revenues in 2024-25. The committee also emphasized the need for targeted subsidies for non-AC travel and better operational efficiency through modern technologies. Overall, a comprehensive approach is essential for enhancing the financial health of Indian Railways.

Titan, a long-time favorite of the Jhunjhunwala family, is witnessing a significant shift in their investment strategy. For the first time, Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKS) has overtaken Titan in their portfolio, with a holding value of Rs 16,319. IKS, which was listed on the National Stock Exchange in December 2024, has shown impressive growth. Meanwhile, Titan's value has dropped by about 15% due to market corrections, reducing the Jhunjhunwala family's investment from Rs 17,481 crore in September to Rs 14,871 crore in December. This highlights a major reallocation in their investments, as they explore new opportunities in the market.