Nifty-Sensex Monday Opening: GIFT Nifty Flat at 23,245 — Will Markets Recover or Crash Further Below 23,000?
Indian stock markets are set for a flat-to-cautious opening on Monday, March 23, 2026, with GIFT Nifty futures indicating marginal gains of 45.70 points (0.20%) at 23,245. However, the positive signal is too weak to inspire confidence given the weight of macro headwinds that have battered markets over the past week.
The Nifty 50 closed Thursday's session at 23,002 — a brutal 3.26% decline — before staging a partial recovery on Friday. Despite Friday's bounce, the broader weekly structure remains deeply bearish. Technically, the Nifty has formed lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart and broke below the key 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from last year's rally, signalling a shift in medium-term market structure. The index is now down approximately 12% from its all-time high, highlighting a deep corrective phase.
Global cues remain unfavourable heading into Monday. US markets closed in the red on Friday, with the Dow Jones falling 119 points to 46,558 and the S&P 500 shedding 0.61% to 6,632. Asian markets are in a wary mood Monday morning — the Nikkei shed 0.5%, while the Hang Seng and KOSPI traded flat. The Israel-Iran-US conflict continues to disrupt Gulf energy infrastructure, keeping Brent crude near $119 per barrel. Every $10/barrel sustained rise in crude is estimated to shave 20–30 basis points off India's GDP growth.
Foreign institutional selling remains relentless. FPIs have offloaded ₹52,704 crore in March 2026 so far — making this one of the heaviest monthly outflow sprees in recent memory. The rupee's weakness, crude-driven inflation fears, and a hawkish US Federal Reserve (which held rates at 3.75% last week) have collectively created a toxic cocktail for emerging market sentiment.
For Monday's session, Nifty's immediate support lies at 23,000–22,800. A decisive break below 22,800 could accelerate selling toward the 22,500–22,000 zone. Resistance on the upside is stiff at 23,400–23,500 — any pullback into this zone is expected to face fresh selling. For Bank Nifty, sustaining below 53,600 risks a slide to 52,500–51,800.
Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities notes that below 23,400 on Nifty and 75,000 on Sensex, weakness is likely to continue. Traders are advised to stay cautious, use strict stop-losses, and avoid leveraged positions until geopolitical risks show clear signs of cooling.
