RBI's June Rate Cut: What to Expect?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a steep drop of 1.79%, closing at 42,197.79 points. This decline of 769.83 points marks a significant turn in the market, with the index fluctuating between 42,602.48 and 42,079.90 during the trading day. Despite this setback, the Dow has shown resilience over the past year, rising by 9.19%, equating to a gain of 3,551.75 points. Investors are keenly watching these trends, which can have ripple effects on global markets, including India's.

A tragic plane crash in Ahmedabad involving Air India flight AI-171 has left the nation in shock. The aircraft, carrying 242 passengers, went down shortly after takeoff from the Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport. Sadly, only one individual, Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, survived the disaster, while 241 others lost their lives. The recovery of the black box, crucial for understanding the incident, was confirmed by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau. This development raises questions about air travel safety and the measures needed to prevent such calamities in the future.

European airline stocks took a hit on June 13 due to rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which pushed crude oil prices up significantly. Indian airlines, like IndiGo and SpiceJet, also saw a drop in shares, following a tragic plane crash near Ahmedabad. The escalating conflict and oil price hike are expected to further strain the aviation sector, affecting operational costs. With airspaces closed and fears of ongoing conflict, the future for airlines looks challenging, raising concerns for travelers and investors alike.

Iran has escalated tensions by launching over 100 drones toward Israel in response to Israeli airstrikes that killed key Iranian military leaders. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the drone attack, stating the UAVs were launched from Iranian territory and would take time to reach their targets. Earlier, Israel conducted a massive airstrike on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites to counter perceived threats. As the situation intensifies, Israelis are stocking up on essentials amid fears of prolonged conflict. The unfolding events highlight the fragile security dynamics in the region.

Arbitrage mutual funds have seen a remarkable 33% rise in net inflows in May, attracting ₹15,702 crore, highlighting their popularity among investors during market fluctuations. These funds offer a stable and low-risk investment option, particularly appealing due to their tax efficiency. Fund managers note that market volatility creates opportunities for profit through price differentials in cash and futures markets. With returns averaging around 6.5–7.1% annually, arbitrage funds are becoming a preferred choice for cautious investors seeking stability and attractive returns.

On June 12, a tragic plane crash near Ahmedabad shocked India and the world, claiming 241 lives, including 169 Indians and 53 British nationals. An Air India Dreamliner crashed just 30 seconds after takeoff, leaving only one survivor. This incident marked India's worst air tragedy in five years, raising questions about technical failures or human errors. As investigations begin, the nation mourns the lost souls and supports the grieving families. The memory of this dark day will linger, reminding us of the fragility of life and the impact of such tragedies on our collective consciousness.

Gold and silver prices are on the rise in India, with gold crossing ₹1 lakh per 10 grams as of June 14. This surge comes amid geopolitical tensions and hopes for interest rate cuts following lower-than-expected US inflation. Investors see gold and silver as safe havens in volatile markets, with gold prices increasing by 30% over the past year. The current rates are ₹1,00,314 for gold and ₹1,06,474 for silver per kilogram. Retail buyers should be aware of additional charges from jewelers.

U.S. President Donald Trump's financial disclosure reveals his extensive wealth, notably from crypto ventures and real estate. His investments in meme coins and decentralized finance have earned him hundreds of millions, raising questions about conflicts of interest due to policies benefiting his businesses. Despite claiming to have placed his businesses in a trust managed by his children, the income still flows back to him. The report highlights Trump's diverse holdings, including golf resorts and licensing deals, showcasing his transition from real estate mogul to a crypto investor.

Oil marketing companies in India faced a decline in share prices on June 12, as oil prices surged over 4% due to rising tensions in the Middle East. Hindustan Petroleum's shares dropped 4.5%, while Bharat Petroleum and Indian Oil also fell. Conversely, oil exploration companies like ONGC saw their stocks rise. Geopolitical issues intensified after Iran threatened U.S. bases, causing concerns that could lead to higher oil prices, affecting India’s economy. Traders reacted to reports of U.S. embassy evacuations, driving crude futures up significantly, raising alarms about future oil costs.

Australia faced a tough start in the WTC Final against South Africa at Lord's, with the bowlers dominating on a slow pitch. Day 1 saw 14 wickets fall, with South Africa’s Kagiso Rabada shining with 5-51. Australia struggled initially, reaching 67-4 at lunch, but standout performances from Beau Webster and Steve Smith helped them recover. The match showcased a fierce bowling display from both sides, setting the stage for an exciting contest as Australia defends its title and South Africa seeks its first ICC trophy this century.

Zomato's parent company, Eternal, saw a 1% increase in shares on June 11, recovering from recent losses due to competition from Rapido's entry into food delivery. A block deal involving nearly 60.93 lakh shares worth ₹156 crore was completed at ₹256 each. Rapido's low delivery fees present a challenge to Zomato and Swiggy, with potential valuation cuts looming. As Rapido promotes honest pricing and leverages its vast rider network, the food delivery landscape in India is set for a shake-up, keeping investors and customers on their toes.

The Reserve Bank of India, under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is sending mixed signals regarding its monetary policy. Recently, the RBI cut interest rates unexpectedly to boost economic growth, but quickly reverted to a neutral stance, raising concerns about future rate cuts. Despite these efforts, banks are hesitant to lend, keeping excess cash parked with the central bank. This has led to confusion among market participants about the effectiveness of the RBI’s policies, especially as loan growth has dipped below 10% for the first time in three years.

Elon Musk recently expressed regret over his harsh comments about former US President Donald Trump, acknowledging that some of his posts went too far. The tension began when Musk criticized a tax bill, leading Trump to express disappointment in him. Musk, who played a pivotal role in Trump’s election, claimed that he was misrepresented regarding the bill and suggested that Trump's past support should not be forgotten. The feud intensified when Musk linked Trump to the Jeffrey Epstein files, but he later deleted those posts, signaling a possible reconciliation.

India's stock market has seen a remarkable surge, adding nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization since March 2025, marking a 21% increase—the highest among the world's top equity markets. While the Sensex and Nifty indices rose significantly, analysts are cautioning about overvaluation and downgrading future earnings estimates. Certain sectors, particularly consumption and IT, are becoming pricey despite slower earnings growth. This trend suggests the possibility of a valuation reset as challenges to profit growth emerge. Investors are advised to stay alert and consult experts before making decisions.

On June 11, shares of Indian oil marketing companies surged as falling global oil prices sparked optimism among investors. The Nifty Oil & Gas index rose by nearly 1.7%. The US Energy Information Administration predicts a further decline in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to drop to $61 per barrel by the end of 2025. The positive sentiment was also fueled by OPEC+ plans to increase production, benefiting Indian refiners. Companies like HPCL and BPCL saw significant gains, with shares rising nearly 4%, highlighting a favorable market outlook for the oil sector in India.

The Maharashtra government has raised excise duties on Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), causing a drop in liquor stocks. Prominent companies like United Breweries and United Spirits faced losses up to 5%, while others like Sula Vineyards thrived due to expected benefits from a new liquor category. The excise on IMFL will increase significantly, leading to a potential 30-50% rise in retail prices. This is the steepest hike since 2011, expected to generate an additional ₹14,000 crore annually. The government is also enhancing oversight through AI technology to improve regulation and curb illicit trade.

Large-cap funds in India experienced a significant decline in inflows in May, dropping 53.19% to Rs 1,250.47 crore, despite positive market performance. While mid- and small-cap funds also slowed, large-caps faced the most impact. Analysts suggest that investors are leaning towards higher-risk options but still emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio with large-cap exposure. Although some funds have performed well, the overall trend indicates a shift in investor preference, with many opting for diversified strategies or ETFs. The outlook for large-caps remains promising, with potential for long-term growth.

General Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, is set to visit Washington DC for US Army Day on June 14. This visit is crucial as the US plans to urge Pakistan to take action against terrorist groups targeting Afghanistan and India. The backdrop of this meeting is rising tensions between India and Pakistan following recent violent incidents. While Pakistan seeks US support on issues like the Tehrik-i-Taliban and Kashmir mediation, India maintains that all disputes must be resolved directly with Pakistan. This visit highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics in South Asia, especially amid US-China rivalries.