RBI's Confusing Signals on Monetary Policy Explained

Australia faced a tough start in the WTC Final against South Africa at Lord's, with the bowlers dominating on a slow pitch. Day 1 saw 14 wickets fall, with South Africa’s Kagiso Rabada shining with 5-51. Australia struggled initially, reaching 67-4 at lunch, but standout performances from Beau Webster and Steve Smith helped them recover. The match showcased a fierce bowling display from both sides, setting the stage for an exciting contest as Australia defends its title and South Africa seeks its first ICC trophy this century.

Zomato's parent company, Eternal, saw a 1% increase in shares on June 11, recovering from recent losses due to competition from Rapido's entry into food delivery. A block deal involving nearly 60.93 lakh shares worth ₹156 crore was completed at ₹256 each. Rapido's low delivery fees present a challenge to Zomato and Swiggy, with potential valuation cuts looming. As Rapido promotes honest pricing and leverages its vast rider network, the food delivery landscape in India is set for a shake-up, keeping investors and customers on their toes.

Elon Musk recently expressed regret over his harsh comments about former US President Donald Trump, acknowledging that some of his posts went too far. The tension began when Musk criticized a tax bill, leading Trump to express disappointment in him. Musk, who played a pivotal role in Trump’s election, claimed that he was misrepresented regarding the bill and suggested that Trump's past support should not be forgotten. The feud intensified when Musk linked Trump to the Jeffrey Epstein files, but he later deleted those posts, signaling a possible reconciliation.

India's stock market has seen a remarkable surge, adding nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization since March 2025, marking a 21% increase—the highest among the world's top equity markets. While the Sensex and Nifty indices rose significantly, analysts are cautioning about overvaluation and downgrading future earnings estimates. Certain sectors, particularly consumption and IT, are becoming pricey despite slower earnings growth. This trend suggests the possibility of a valuation reset as challenges to profit growth emerge. Investors are advised to stay alert and consult experts before making decisions.

On June 11, shares of Indian oil marketing companies surged as falling global oil prices sparked optimism among investors. The Nifty Oil & Gas index rose by nearly 1.7%. The US Energy Information Administration predicts a further decline in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to drop to $61 per barrel by the end of 2025. The positive sentiment was also fueled by OPEC+ plans to increase production, benefiting Indian refiners. Companies like HPCL and BPCL saw significant gains, with shares rising nearly 4%, highlighting a favorable market outlook for the oil sector in India.

The Maharashtra government has raised excise duties on Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), causing a drop in liquor stocks. Prominent companies like United Breweries and United Spirits faced losses up to 5%, while others like Sula Vineyards thrived due to expected benefits from a new liquor category. The excise on IMFL will increase significantly, leading to a potential 30-50% rise in retail prices. This is the steepest hike since 2011, expected to generate an additional ₹14,000 crore annually. The government is also enhancing oversight through AI technology to improve regulation and curb illicit trade.

Large-cap funds in India experienced a significant decline in inflows in May, dropping 53.19% to Rs 1,250.47 crore, despite positive market performance. While mid- and small-cap funds also slowed, large-caps faced the most impact. Analysts suggest that investors are leaning towards higher-risk options but still emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio with large-cap exposure. Although some funds have performed well, the overall trend indicates a shift in investor preference, with many opting for diversified strategies or ETFs. The outlook for large-caps remains promising, with potential for long-term growth.

General Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, is set to visit Washington DC for US Army Day on June 14. This visit is crucial as the US plans to urge Pakistan to take action against terrorist groups targeting Afghanistan and India. The backdrop of this meeting is rising tensions between India and Pakistan following recent violent incidents. While Pakistan seeks US support on issues like the Tehrik-i-Taliban and Kashmir mediation, India maintains that all disputes must be resolved directly with Pakistan. This visit highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics in South Asia, especially amid US-China rivalries.

Gautam Adani’s group is set to list its airports unit by 2027, marking a bold growth strategy with a $100 billion investment plan. Adani Airport Holdings, India's leading private airport operator, will likely be spun off by March 2027. The group is also ramping up its capital spending, shifting to a five- to six-year timeframe for investments in energy, logistics, and infrastructure. Despite past controversies, including fraud allegations, Adani is actively seeking overseas partnerships and funding to support its ambitious projects.

The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is set to introduce a women's reservation bill for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam aims to reserve one-third of seats in Parliament and state assemblies for women. This initiative is linked to the upcoming delimitation process, which will reshape electoral boundaries. As the Census has been announced, the government is taking steps to ensure women's representation in governance. This significant move aims to empower women and enhance their political participation in India.

The UPSC is set to announce the results for the Civil Services Preliminary Examination (CSE) 2025 soon. Candidates who took the exam on May 25 can check their results on the official UPSC website. The Prelims consisted of two papers: General Studies and CSAT, with CSAT being qualifying. Candidates who qualify will move on to the Mains exam in September 2025. The results will be released in a PDF format, and candidates can find their roll numbers there. Stay tuned for updates on this crucial step in your civil services journey!

U.S.-China trade talks in London are crucial as both economies face strain from ongoing tariff disputes. Officials aim to revive a temporary truce, with the U.S. seeking concessions on rare earth exports that are vital for many industries, including electric vehicles. President Trump remains optimistic about the discussions, emphasizing positive reports from his team. However, tensions remain high, and analysts suggest a breakthrough deal is unlikely due to ongoing global supply chain issues. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact both countries' economies and the global market.

Apple has unveiled a bold design update called Liquid Glass at WWDC 2025, bringing a fresh look to iOS 26, iPadOS 26, and more. This new aesthetic features a translucent, dynamic material that reacts to light and user interactions, creating a visually striking experience. The design is consistent across all Apple devices, enhancing user familiarity while introducing personalization options. Redesigned interfaces in apps like Safari and Music offer a harmonious blend of elegance and usability, making navigation intuitive. Overall, Liquid Glass aims to delight users by merging innovation with the comfort of familiarity.

Equity mutual funds in India saw positive inflows for the 51st month in May, totaling ₹19,013 crore despite a decline from April. This brought the assets under management to ₹32.05 lakh crore. While the Nifty and Sensex rose by about 2%, midcap and smallcap indices surged by 5% and 10%, respectively. New SIP registrations increased, with a notable drop in SIP stoppage rates, indicating investor confidence. Despite fluctuations, hybrid and arbitrage funds attracted significant interest, reflecting a cautious approach among investors looking for safer options amid market volatility.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7%, down from 4%, providing relief to households. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted improving food supply as a key factor. Additionally, the RBI adjusted its monetary policy from “accommodative” to “neutral” and reduced the benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%, the lowest in three years. This decision aims to boost growth amidst a slowing economy, with GDP growth projected at 6.5% for FY26. Lower borrowing costs will benefit consumers and stimulate demand.

In 2025, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have poured over Rs 3 lakh crore into Indian equities, marking the second-highest inflow since 2007. The recent surge, particularly in May and June, reflects strong market sentiment and investor confidence, driven by mutual funds and retail investor support. The RBI's policy measures and favorable economic conditions further boost optimism. While banks have sold off, mutual funds lead with significant net purchases. Experts suggest that continued inflows and robust earnings growth will be vital for sustaining this momentum, despite potential market corrections.

Tata Motors is gearing up for ambitious growth, targeting a significant increase in its commercial and passenger vehicle businesses. By FY26, it aims for a double-digit EBITDA margin in commercial vehicles and a 10% margin in passenger and electric vehicles by FY30. The company plans to enhance its market share and profitability in a competitive environment, focusing on innovation and decarbonisation. Despite challenges like muted demand and global trade uncertainties, Tata Motors' electric vehicle segment is set for a strong future with positive EBITDA expected.

SEBI has proposed new guidelines to prevent conflicts of interest for research analysts (RAs) in India. According to the new rules, RAs cannot provide research services for products they also distribute. This measure aims to ensure that research remains independent and unbiased. While RAs can distribute products if they don’t provide research on them, they must keep these services distinct within their organization. The aim is to protect clients' interests and enhance transparency in the financial market. SEBI emphasizes the need for certifications for those involved in research, ensuring professionalism in the industry.